USD/TRY peaked at an all-time high of 18.3633 (an approximate 12% move up), to then drop to 12.2756 before the end of the day on Monday. In the view of economists at TD Securities, it is likely that the bearish USD/TRY move of the past hours is a move that markets will be fading.
USD/TRY may find some short-term reprieve
“USD/TRY may find some short-term reprieve, possibly strengthened by speculative longs that want to ride the enthusiasm of the moment. But the long-term macro-financial weaknesses of Turkey are still all there until the origins of this TRY debacle is acknowledged and dealt with.”
“With real rates at around -700bps, and likely to dip deeper as inflation rises and rates are maybe eased further, USDTRY has only one direction to go: up.”