The USD continues to show a high correlation to US data surprises, so the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report should signal the direction. Economists at TD Securities will be short-term focused on whether this number shakes resilient risk sentiment, as that will also help inform near-term USD price action.
EUR/USD to remain in its broad 1.0150/1.0290 range
“A stronger CPI print, particularly in the details, could alter pricing (in a hawkish direction) beyond September, while a downside surprise will likely shake pricing for next month.”
“We are inclined to see EUR/USD remain in its broad 1.0150/1.0290 range though a break of that is more likely on the downside than the upside.”
“USD/JPY should trade closer to 136 based on spreads, and we think a positive surprise should get it there.”
“We are focused on the impact on risk sentiment as that should also inform near-term pricing for FX markets in what otherwise is thinner liquidity at this time of year.”
See – US CPI Preview: Forecasts from nine major banks, soaring inflation to ease off in July