- USD/IDR extends early-week pullback from the 200-DMA ahead of the key central bank announcement.
- Bank Indonesia is expected to keep benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%.
- Three-month-old ascending trend line holds the gate for further downside.
- Bulls have multiple hurdles even if they manage to cross the key DMA.
USD/IDR remains on the back foot for the third consecutive day, around $14,300 during Thursday’s Asian session.
In doing so, the Indonesia rupiah (IDR) pair extend the previous U-turn from the 200-DMA towards an ascending support line from December 2021 ahead of the Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate.
Although the BI isn’t expected to alter the monetary policy, Finance Minister (FinMin) Sri Mulyani Indrawati’s readiness to take measures to defend the domestic economy from the Ukraine-Russia crisis can keep USD/IDR moving ahead. The bearish bias also takes clues from the downbeat MACD signals.
That said, a three-month-old upward sloping support line near $14,300 becomes crucial as a break of which will direct the quote towards another key trend line support, from November 2021 around $14,255 by the press time.
In a case where the USD/IDR prices drop below $14,255, a December 2021 low of $14,220 will gain the market’s attention.
Meanwhile, recovery moves need to provide a daily closing beyond the 200-DMA level of $14,330 to retake controls.
Even so, multiple hurdles around $14,390 and $14,400 will challenge the USD/IDR bulls ahead of the monthly peak of $14,414.
USD/IDR: Daily chart
Trend: Further weakness expected