This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
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Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 6 months.
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Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
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Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast February 2022
For the month of February, I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair will fall in value. The performance to date of this forecast is as follows:
| Currency Pair | Forecast Direction | Interest Rate Differential | Performance to Date |
| EUR/USD | Short ↓ | +0.25% (0.25% – 0.00%) | -0.76% |
Weekly Forecast 20th February 2022
In my previous forecast last week, I made no weekly forecast. I again make no forecast this week.
The Forex market saw its level of directional volatility fall last week, with only 3% of all the important currency pairs or crosses moving by more than 1% in value. Directional volatility is likely to increase or remain the same over this coming week, especially if military conflict between Russia and Ukraine begins.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the New Zealand Dollar, and relative weakness in the Euro, but the numbers were so small as to be negligible.
You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.
| Currency Pair | Key Support / Resistance Levels |
| AUD/USD | Support: 0.7157, 0.7082, 0.7006, 0.6963Resistance: 0.7191, 0.7293, 0.7321, 0.7344 |
| EUR/USD | Support: 1.1279, 1.1195, 1.1183, 1.1089Resistance: 1.1418, 1.1671, 1.1688, 1.1711 |
| GBP/USD | Support: 1.3458, 1.3401, 1.3375, 1.3340Resistance: 1.3664, 1.3769, 1.3852, 1.3898 |
| USD/JPY | Support: 114.80, 114.55, 114.23, 113.07Resistance: 115.34, 115.56, 115.71, 115.95 |
| AUD/JPY | Support: 82.41, 81.89, 80.79, 80.40Resistance: 84.35, 84.83, 84.96, 85.20 |
| EUR/JPY | Support: 130.00, 129.31, 128.30, 127.44Resistance: 131.16, 131.51, 131.91, 132.35 |
| USD/CAD | Support: 1.2645, 1.2535, 1.2498, 1.2372Resistance: 1.2812, 1.2901, 1.2959, 1.3025 |
| USD/CHF | Support: 0.9159, 0.9072, 0.9000, 0.8969Resistance: 0.9213, 0.9228, 0.9291, 0.9370 |
That is all for this week. You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.
