The rand remains weak versus the dollar, which is strengthening due to fears about slowing global economic growth, increasing interest rates, and conflict threats, resulting in greater market volatility.
According to Bloomberg, the dollar surged against all of its key counterparts as China's Covid lockdowns, increasing inflation, and a weakening global growth outlook bolstered demand for the currency as a safe haven.
“Surging inflation, the crisis in Ukraine, and tougher lockdowns against Covid-19 in Beijing and Shanghai have left investors nervous on numerous fronts,” Reuters said. The dollar climbed the most against risky currencies, such as the rand.
Investors are leaving US Treasuries and “flocking to the currency market and buying the US dollar” as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates aggressively, according to Matt Maley, chief market analyst at Miller Tabak & Co.
“Given the situation in Ukraine and China's healthcare issues, it's not surprising that the dollar has become an even stronger magnet than normal during difficult times.”
Following the Fed rate announcement in the middle of last week, the South African rand battled its way back against the greenback, hitting as high as R15.43 per dollar. However, by Monday morning, the local currency had reached the following values versus the main currencies:
· Dollar/Rand: R16.13 (0.71%)
· Pound/Rand: R19.84 (0.38%)
· Euro/Rand: R16.97 (0.38%)
“Markets are jittery to begin the week. ”Ongoing Chinese lockdowns, the Ukraine crisis, and growing inflation continue to be sources of concern, said Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global.Gold is still under pressure from the strong dollar, while oil prices are being held back by a slowdown in Chinese demand, she added. The big release for this week, according to Citadel Global, is US inflation, which is coming on Wednesday. We'll be watching the local SACCI business confidence data today.
“The rand is on thin ice,” Botes added. While the rand has dropped significantly in recent weeks, Absa feels it is still cheap. According to the financial services firm, the rand would rebound to R15.25 versus the dollar by mid-year before steadily sliding to R15.75 by year's end. Bloomberg said that oil was hovering around $110 per barrel. Crude is being buffeted by supply threats associated to Russia's war in Ukraine, as well as demand from China's breakout.
