After rising sharply, the prices of many commodities and transport prices have fallen markedly again. Analysts at Natixis believe that many mechanisms are driving us towards such a regime of scarcity. It is therefore difficult to believe in a return to a regime of abundance.
OECD countries will not return to the previous regime of abundance
“Despite the current fall in the prices of many commodities (oil, metals, agricultural products, transport, etc.), we believe that OECD countries, for a number of reasons (energy transition, restoration of wage earners’ bargaining power, reshoring, shift in the structure of demand, geopolitical tensions), will remain in a regime of scarcity, and therefore inflation.”
“This will result in continued relatively high inflation, income distribution conflicts and a more restrictive monetary policy.”