Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann assesses the latest RBNZ monetary policy meeting.
Key Takeaways
“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) increased its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 1.00%. It will also begin quantitative tightening in Jul, selling down its holdings of government bonds at a rate of NZD5 bn per year. Maturities will not be reinvested.”
“In our view, two things stood out at this meeting. First, the RBNZ had considered a 50bps hike. Second, new forecasts published by the RBNZ show the OCR rising to 2.50% over the next 12 months and peaking at about 3.25% at the end of 2023. In Nov, the bank forecast a lower peak of about 2.50%.”
“While these clearly show how serious the RBNZ is about containing inflation risks, we maintain our view for 25bps hike in May, Aug and Nov this year, taking the OCR to 1.25% by mid-2022, and for it to reach 1.75% by end-2022, taking into account several downside risks, including COVID-19 developments, the domestic housing market and external geopolitical environment. The next monetary policy meeting is on 23 Apr.”