Economist at UOB Group Enrico Tanuwidjaja comments on the latest inflation figures in Indonesia.
Key Takeaways
“Indonesia’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.75% y/y in November vis-à-vis 1.66% a month earlier, lower than market expectation of 1.80% (Reuters). This was the highest inflation rate since May, amidst loosening restrictions in some regions in the country. On a month-on-month basis, Indonesia’s inflation came in at 0.37% inflation in November, following a reading of 0.12% m/m in October.”
“Annual core inflation rate rose slightly to 1.44% y/y in November (vs. October’s at 1.33%) and volatile prices component slowed to 3.05% y/y (vs. October 3.16%). Meanwhile, the government-administered prices component rose in November to 1.69% y/y vs. 1.47% in the previous month.”
“Going forward, we expect the headline inflation to gradually recover, and exceed the lower end of the government's 2021 inflation target (2.0% – 4.0%), as the daily COVID-19 cases are now more under control.”