By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex
Early in the week, EUR/USD is falling and trading at 1.1575. The “greenback” is clearly attempting to attack.
Last Friday’s US statistics on the retail sales for September turned out to be more impressive than expected. The indicator added 0.7% m/m after expanding by 0.9% m/m in August (it was revised upwards) and against the expected reading of -0.2% m/m. In total, the indicator added 14.9% y/y July through September. That’s a very good result.
Stable statistics will give the US Fed a reason for reducing the QE program as early as November – investors are waiting for detailed signals from the regulator in the nearest future.
In the H4 chart, after completing the ascending impulse at 1.1622 along with the descending structure towards 1.1585, EUR/USD has broken the latter level to the downside. Possibly, the pair may continue the correction to reach 1.1545 and then start another growth towards 1.1585, thus forming a new consolidation range between ерese two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume trading upwards to break 1.1622 and then continue growing to reach 1.1717; if to the downside – form a new descending structure towards 1.1530 or even reach the target at 1.1450. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is steadily falling towards 0. In the future, the line is expected to break this level and continue falling towards new lows.
As we can see in the H1 chart, after rebounding from 1.1616 to the downside, EUR/USD continues forming the third correctional wave. The pair has already broken 1.1585 and may continue falling with the short-term target at 1.1555. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards to test 1.1585 from below and then start a new decline to complete the correction at 1.1545. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 20. Later, the line is expected to grow towards 50, a rebound from which may lead to another decline to reach 20.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
Monday, 18 Oct, 2021 / 12:42
