The British pound has shot straight up in the air against the Swiss franc during trading on Thursday, but it is worth noting that he gave back about half the gains. Because of this, it will be interesting to see if Sterling can keep its strength, considering that it peeled away from the 50 day EMA almost immediately. The 50% loss of the earlier session gains does not bode well for confidence. You will notice that we recently had seen a massive shooting star that reached all the way up to about the highs of where we were during the day on Thursday. In other words, there is probably a significant amount of resistance in the 1.2360 level.
The 50 day EMA sits there as well, so there is a certain amount of technical analysis that could come into this picture as well. Regardless, the market is in a downtrend and therefore even though we have seen a couple of days were the market had really try to turn itself around, it cannot hang on to gains. This tells me that this probably continues to be a “sell on the rallies” type of deal.
I find this particularly interesting considering that the British pound spiked against almost everything, and many of its other pairs kept its gains. This could be a function of Swiss franc strength though, so that is something that needs to be thought about. Nonetheless, this looks like a market that is destined to revisit its lows, so I am looking for shorting opportunities over the next two weeks. On a breakdown below the candlestick for the Thursday session, I suspect that would be good enough to get short yet again.
To the upside, if we were to take out the 1.24 handle, then I would be more convinced of this breakout it is at that point we would have work our way through significant amounts of resistance, and therefore it would be a move that would have been very resilient and taken a lot of effort. In that scenario, it becomes more of a buy-and-hold scenario where I think eventually we take out the 200 day EMA. Keep in mind that this pair has a certain amount of risk appetite attached to it, rising one risk appetite is strengthening, and falling when it is falling.
