The hypothetical recession the Fed will use as the basis of its tests also envisions unemployment spiking to 10% over two years. Commercial real estate prices will fall 40% over that time frame, while corporate debt and other assets will collapse in value. The test will be applied to 34 of the nations largest banks.
The 2022 test tracks closely to the test banks underwent in 2021, with some minor changes. The unemployment rate spikes to 10% compared to 10.75% in 2021 — however, the jobless rate in 2022 is well below where it stood when the 2021 scenarios were released.
The 2022 test also includes a sharp decline in the U.S. economy, followed by a quick recovery. The test envisions the nations gross domestic product (GDP) falls over 3.5% over a little more than a year — a sharper but briefer decline than the 2021 test.
As it has in prior years, the Fed said banks with large trading operations would be tested against a global market shock, while banks with large trading and custodial operations would be tested against the hypothetical default of their largest counterparty.
