EURO, EUR/USD, UKRAINE, ECB – TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Euro likely remains pressured against the US Dollar before the ECB this week
The hourly setting appears to be showing preliminary signs of trend exhaustion
What are key EUR/USD levels to watch to help confirm reversal potential？
EURO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Zooming in on shorter timeframes, such as the 1-hour setting, could offer preliminary warnings of exhaustion. Is this the case for the Euro？
It should be noted that the swings of Russias attack on Ukraine remain a source of fundamental volatility due to proximity risk for the Euro. The European Central Bank will also be meeting on March 10th to set monetary policy. Expectations for a hawkish approach later this year have been notably cut back. Still, proximity risk to the ECB rate decision may offer the Euro some breathing space in the interim.
On the daily chart below, EUR/USDs slide has brought it closer and closer to lows from April 2020. These make for a range of support between 1.0727 and 1.0793, before the 2020 kicks in at 1.0636. In the near-term, keep a close eye on the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This could hold as resistance in the event prices pivot higher, reinstating the dominant downside focus.
Immediate resistance does seem to be the 78.6% Fibonacci extension at 1.0927, followed by the 61.8% level at 1.1048. Let us look at the hourly timeframe to see if there are preliminary signs of exhaustion building up.
