EUR/RUB is likely to revisit the 80.38/79.03 October low and 200-week moving average provided that 86.60 caps before rising in Q1 2022, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, reports.
EUR/RUB to slide to the 80.38/79.03 zone
“EUR/RUB’s descent eyes the 80.38/79.03 October low and 200-week moving average while the June-to-August lows and mid-September high at 85.75/86.60 cap.”
“Should the 80.38/79.03 support zone give way, we would have to allow for the 55 month moving average, June 2020 low and 2013-2021 uptrend line at 77.69/75.26 to be hit. The latter we expect to hold throughout the remainder of this year and during 2022, though. From there another uptrend should begin in Q1 2022.”
“For a bullish reversal to occur before 2022 not only the recent minor highs at 83.66/70 would need to be exceeded but also the above mentioned 85.75/86.60 resistance area. Stronger resistance can be found between the 200-day moving average at 87.42 and the July 2021 high at 89.05. This area may well be reached during 2022 when the 2020 uptrend is expected to resume.”