EUR/HUF has seen major headwinds since the mid-April bottoming at around 370. Economists at ING expect the pair to hover around the 378 mark for the next three months.
Sliding external balance puts systemic pressure on HUF
“The key structural factor behind HUF weakness remains the continuous deterioration in the external balance due to the country’s rising energy bill. This puts systemic pressure on forint, making a structural bet against HUF easier for investors.”
“The National Bank of Hungary’s ongoing hawkishness could provide some support, but we see 378 remaining the gravity line for the next three months.”
“As the hoped-for de-escalation ripples through markets, we envision EUR/HUF easing back in the 355-360 range in the longer run.”