Polkadot had a very volatile trading session on Friday, but the sellers came back and punished anybody trying to pick it up. The $9.00 level looks as if it is trying to offer a certain amount of support, but it is more likely than not a situation where we are going to see this market break down below there. The $9.00 level is an area that opens up the possibility of a move back down to the $7.50 level, and then eventually to the $5.00 level.
The outlook for Polkadot is miserable to say the least. In fact, anything not named “Bitcoin” looks especially vulnerable. Even Bitcoin has been struggling. If we see that market unravel again, coins such as Polkadot are going to be eviscerated. As I look at the altcoin markets, nothing looks good with perhaps the minor exception of Monero, which seems to be in its own world recently. Because of this, all of these smaller markets are to be shorted every time they rally, and Polkadot is no different.
It looks as if the $10.00 level has offered quite a bit of resistance over the last couple of weeks, and the $12.00 level beyond that has been important as well. The 50-day EMA is near the $13.70 level and dropping. There is a nice spread between the 50-day EMA in the 200-day EMA, and it‘s likely that we would continue to see a lot of negativity in this market. As long as we see the bigger coins fall apart, a smaller one like Polkadot stands no real chance. It’s also worth noting that there was a significant spike in volume, but we did not get a move to the upside. Thats normally a very bad sign, so I would not be surprised to see this market lose a few dollars in the next couple of weeks.
Unless we break above the $15 level at the very minimum, I just don‘t see a situation where you should be a buyer of this market. If we did do that, then it could be the beginning of a change, but until risk appetite returns and the Federal Reserve changes its overall attitude, I just don’t see crypto going well. There are several coins that I am watching right now that I do not think will be trading next year.