Goldman Sachs has cut its 2022 China GDP forecast to 4% from 4.5% YoY and has cut the Q2 estimate to 1.5% YoY vs. 4% previous.
Key quotes
“Full-year growth is based on the assumption that Covid will remain mostly under control and that the property market improves.”
“The government boosts infrastructure spending.”
“The Chinese government's forecast for GDP growth this year is around 5.5.'”
“It is imperative to keep Covid under control and avoid hard lockdowns of major economic centres like Shanghai going forward.”
“The government could hit its growth target if it uses “statistical smoothing.”
Revisions to previous years’ GDP or “deviations of current year’s GDP growth from alternative measures of economic activity can sometimes take place in difficult growth years.”
