Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions which have followed have led to a significant change in the oil outlook. Subsequently, strategists at ING have made some significant upward revisions to their oil price forecasts.
Oil prices set to remain elevated
“For 2Q22, we now expect that ICE Brent will average $102/bbl, whilst for the full-year 2022, we expect Brent to average$96/bbl.”
“If we were to see a scenario where Russian energy exports are fully targeted this could lead to a situation where we see Brent trading up towards $150/bbl this year.”
“Potential oil sanctions against Russia would mean that Russian oil falls to even larger discounts than we are currently seeing, which will be just too tempting for some buyers. Under such a scenario, we would likely see Brent spiking significantly higher in the immediate term on the back of an announcement, but then trading towards $115-120/bbl as we move through the year.”