Bitcoin – if you have followed me on social media since 11th May you will know that I predicted the crypto crash, after spotting a 2-month head & shoulders reversal pattern, which completed on the 17th May for a clear sell signal.
I also suggested longs at 31100/30000 yesterday. We bottomed exactly at & shot higher to first resistance at 37000/38000 for an easy 7000 ticks profit.
Ripple XRP crashed to a very important 6-month trend line & 200-day moving average support at 0.7040-0.6558. We wrote: This is the best chance of an end to the crash.
What a call!! Prices bottomed at 6510 & shot higher to strong resistance at 0.9200/9450. However, we continued higher to important 38.2% Fibonacci & short-term moving average resistance at 1.0515/45.
Ethereum we wrote: has collapsed to retest the 14 month 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1728. In fact, as I write we bottomed exactly at 1731.
This is the last line of defence for bulls with a potential double bottom buy signal – If you have been waiting for an excellent buying opportunity then this is worth a gamble.
What a call! Prices bottomed exactly here & shot higher to beat strong resistance at 2300/2400 for a buy signal targeting 2600 & 2750/2800. We topped exactly here.
Daily analysis
Bitcoin shot higher to first resistance at 37000/38000 & is the main challenge for bulls today. However, we also have strong resistance at 39500/40500. So it is only above 41500 that bulls are fully back in control, initially targeting 42000/42500 & head & shoulders neckline at 43750/44000.
Failure to beat the 37500/40500 resistance area keeps bears in control. Remember we are in a 2 month bear trend & this could be just the start. Below 37000 risks a slide to 35500 & a retest of strong support at 31100/30000, just above my ultimate target for the head & shoulders sell signal at 27500/27000.
Brave bulls can try longs again at 31100/30000 but be aware that my ultimate target for the crash was 27500/27000. So save some funds to add to longs here. However, longs need stops below 25500. A break lower signals significant further losses are likely.
Ripple tests important 38.2% Fibonacci & short-term moving average resistance at 1.0515/1.0545. Shorts need stops above 1.1400. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 1.1700/1.1800, perhaps as far as 1.3000/1.3500.
Shorts at strong resistance at 1.0515/1.0545 target 0.9000/0.8970, perhaps as far as 0.8050/30. Again expect very important 6-month trend line & 200-day moving average support at 0.7040-0.6558 to hold the downside. Brave bulls or longer-term investors can try longs with stops below 0.6400. If prices hold below here then all is lost for the bulls & a further significant correction to the downside looks likely. Initially we can target 0.5100 – 0.4800.
Ethereum longs at the 1730 area worked perfectly on the 1000 tick (or 58%) rally to strong resistance at 2750/2800. This the main challenge for bulls today. Shorts need stops above 2850. A break higher is another buy signal targeting first resistance at 3050/3100, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 3300/3400. Shorts need stops above 3500.
Shorts at 2750/2800 target first support at 2400/2350. A low for the day is certainly possible here but longs need stops below 2300. A break lower to targets 2140/30 before a retest of important 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1728. Brave bulls can try longs here again & can also average down, buying a little more at the 200 day moving average at 1600. It is entirely possible that this will be the low for the crash. Longs MUST stop below 1500. A break lower to kills the recovery hopes & risks a slide to 1300/1250. Although the decline may pause here I do not see this as a strong support level & longs would be extremely risky.