- AVAX price faces massive rejection at the 100-day and 50-day SMAs, suggesting exhaustion of bullish momentum.
- Investors can expect Avalanche to retrace 12% to $79.06 before rethinking the directional bias.
- A four-hour candlestick close below $75.01 could trigger a crash to $70.
AVAX price has taken multiple breathers over the past week, which has resulted in an exponential move. However, the uptrend is at risk of a U-turn as Avalanche faces two hurdles.
AVAX price at make or break point
AVAX price rose 43% in nearly five days, setting up a local top at $94.17. While this run-up is impressive, Avalanche bulls had to retrace multiple times before reaching the recent swing high. Over the past four hours, the altcoin has surged 8% and is facing off against the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 100-day SMA at $88.99 and $93.86, respectively.
These two hurdles pose significant resistance to the bullish momentum and even threaten a reversal. Therefore, AVAX price needs to retrace to the immediate support level at $84.87 or $79.06 to replenish the buying pressure.
Doing so will allow the bulls to trigger another run-up that, hopefully, slices through the 50-day and 100-day SMAs to make a run for the $96.96 hurdle. Avalanche has tagged this level twice since January 6, leaving quite a bit of buy-stops resting above it.
Therefore, investors can expect AVAX price to sweep above the $96.96 barrier, bringing the total gain to 14%. In some cases, the uptrend could extend to $100 psychological barrier and form a local top around this level.
AVAX/USDT 4-hour chart
On the contrary, if AVAX price fails to slice through the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at $88.99 and $93.86, respectively, it will indicate a weakness among buyers.
A breakdown of the $84.87 support level will reveal that sellers are in control. However, a breakdown of the $75.01 barrier will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis. In such a case, AVAX price could crash 7% and revisit the 200-day SMA at $70.07.
