- AUD/USD demand coming through in hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in talks between the US and Russia.
- US Secretary of state Blinken has accepted an invitation to meet Russia's Lavrov late next week.
At 0.7197, AUD/USD is up 0.16% in the Asian session as risk appetite returns on what looks to be further signs of diplomacy shining through the cracks of fear of imminent war between NATO, and Ukraine vs. Russia.
Initially, the Aussie had been treading a more cautious path amid fears Russia was about to invade Ukraine. However, reports that the US Secretary of state Blinken has accepted an invitation to meet Russia's Lavrov late next week, according to a State Department spokesman, has calmed some nerves in Asia. Additionally, US president, Joe Biden, will host a meeting on Ukraine on Friday with leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Britain, EU and NATO.
Reuters reported that iron ore has recoiled sharply this week as Beijing stepped up efforts to restrain the steel-making mineral. ''Analysts at ANZ noted that inventories of many resources were near record lows just as manufacturers were looking to build up stocks in response to the supply disruptions of the past couple of years. That, combined with predictions of solid global growth this year, meant resources could weather higher interest rates.''
Meanwhile analysts at TD Securities explained, ''should geopolitical risk ease, aluminium prices are vulnerable as the disruptive lockdown in Baise ends, along with Chinese curtailments and easing European power woes.''
On the other hand, the analysts added, ''markets sensitivity to Ukraine risk is likely to rise heading into February 20th, which marks the end of war games in Belarus, as the West monitors for signs that Russian troops will return to base in a strong sign of de-escalation. Conversely, their failure to do so would likely catalyze a substantial rise in Russia risk premium.''
''In turn, positions that benefit from a rise in Russia risk premium carry a substantial time decay, as traders need to be right about the direction of the risk and about its timing — axes for which most participants have little edge.''
