Assessing ApeCoin’s chances of a 60% rally in the bear market

• ApeCoin price has veered off its bull pennant formation but still promises a 30% ascent.
• From a conservative standpoint, investors can expect a recovery rally to the $10.68 hurdle.
• A decisive close below $7.19 will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis.

ApeCoin price was traversing a bullish continuation pattern after the recent market crash. However, the coin moved off track and has not been able to rouse the bulls for a run-up so far. 

ApeCoin price coils up

ApeCoin price formed a bull pennant after a 70% crash in roughly a week. The subsequent 76% surge between May 12 and 13 created the “flagpole,” while the consolidation that followed in the form of lower highs and higher lows that followed created the “pennant.” 

This continuation pattern signals a 43% upswing to $12.80, determined by measuring the flag pole’s height and adding to the breakout point at $8.90. 

Despite the bullish intonations of this setup, APE broke down from the pennant and has been coiling up around the $8.14 barrier. A recovery above this level followed by a resurgence of buyers would trigger a 30% ascent to the first hurdle at $10.68.

In a highly bullish case, this move could extend to the forecasted target at $12.80, constituting a 63% gain.

APE/USDT 2-hour chart

Supporting this uptrend for ApeCoin price is the supply distribution chart, which shows that whales holding 100,000 to 1,000,000 tokens have increased their holdings from 81 to 110 since May 2. 

This 35% spike indicates that institutional investors are interested in APE tokens at the current price levels.

APE supply distribution 

Regardless of the optimism, a downward breakout has invalidated the bull pennant. Additionally, a decisive move that produces a lower low below $7.19 will invalidate the bullish thesis for ApeCoin price and trigger a crash to $5.00.