Gold has cleared key resistance from the July and August highs and downtrend from August 2020 at $1,834 for the completion of a five-month base. XAU/USD may be set for the beginning of a more important turn higher but strategists at Credit Suisse are concerned is that gold strength may come to a swift end if inflation expectations peak.
Initial support is seen at $1,834
“Gold may be seeing the beginning of more important turn higher after completing a base. We thus look for a move to the June high at $1,917 initially. Beyond here can reinforce the likelihood of a more important move higher with resistance seen next at $1,959/77 and eventually the $2,075 record high.”
“Support is seen at $1,834 initially, then $1,814.”
“Our base case though is that we are close to a peak in inflation expectations, which if correct would suggest Real Yields should soon find a floor again around -1.25/1.26% and start to rise again. If our view is correct, it would suggest it may be difficult to see XAU/USD rally meaningfully on such a development, unless we see signs of a broader market ‘risk-off’ phase.”
See – Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to extend its upside momentum as yields will remain negative – ANZ